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The escalation in the Middle East that began on 28 February 2026 has fundamentally reshaped global air cargo. With airspace closed across Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and parts of Saudi Arabia, and major Gulf hubs like Dubai (DXB), Abu Dhabi (AUH), and Doha (DOH) operating well below capacity, the scheduled freighter network has lost a significant share of its lift almost overnight.
For shippers with time-critical cargo, scheduled services are no longer a reliable option. Bookings are being rolled, embargoes extended, and transit times stretched by 5 to 10 days or more. As a result, demand for air cargo charter has surged — and so have rates.
At CharterSync, we are seeing charter pricing on affected trade lanes rise by 75% to 100% compared to pre-conflict levels, driven by a combination of reduced aircraft availability, longer routings, and a near-doubling of jet fuel costs since the crisis began.
Three factors have come together to remove a substantial portion of the world's air cargo capacity:
1. Middle East carrier grounding. Gulf-based airlines — Emirates, Etihad, Qatar Airways, and Saudia — account for roughly 13.6% of global air cargo capacity (IATA). For much of March, these carriers were operating at a fraction of their pre-conflict levels: Emirates at 60–65%, Etihad and Qatar Airways at around 15%. Even as operations gradually resume, schedules remain fragile and subject to Prior Permission Required (PPR) clearances.
2. Airspace closures forcing reroutes. European and Asian carriers that would normally overfly the Gulf are now taking longer, more fuel-intensive routes. Many have added "technical stops" in Jeddah or other workaround hubs to bypass restricted zones. Longer routings mean reduced payloads — airlines are carrying less cargo to accommodate the extra fuel required.
3. Cargo embargoes from major carriers. Lufthansa, Cargolux, United, Air France-KLM, and other major EU and US freight operators have implemented rolling cargo embargoes to and from the region. Bookings for Tel Aviv, Beirut, Amman, Dammam, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, and Doha have been suspended for extended periods, with only sporadic resumptions.
The net effect, according to Aevean data, is a 39% reduction in international air cargo capacity across the Asia-Pacific–Middle East and South Asia–Europe corridors.
Jet fuel prices have climbed sharply since the start of the conflict, with IATA's Jet Fuel Monitor showing prices at $195/barrel for the week ending 27 March 2026, and projected to cross $200/barrel shortly after. That represents a near-doubling from pre-crisis levels.
For charter operators, fuel is the single largest variable cost of any mission. Sustained fuel prices above $200/barrel, combined with longer routings to avoid closed airspace, mean that even before considering supply and demand dynamics, the cost floor for a charter flight has shifted significantly upward.
Carriers including Oman Air have introduced weekly fuel and war risk surcharges, and several national markets have started to apply cartage-level fuel surcharges — Thailand at 30% and Australia at 44% of the cartage base.
Based on market activity we have observed, the steepest rate increases have been on lanes where scheduled capacity has been most disrupted and where manufacturing output cannot wait:
On these lanes, we are consistently seeing charter rate increases in the 75–100% range — and in some cases higher for short-notice, same-day missions.
The conflict has created charter demand from sectors that do not always sit at the top of our inquiry list:
Fashion and apparel. Manufacturers in Bangladesh and India are reporting shipments being left behind at airports as scheduled airlines adjust routes. With retailer delivery windows fixed, brands are turning to dedicated charters to clear backlogs and protect launch dates.
Automotive and manufacturing. Production lines in Europe and North America that rely on just-in-time components from South and Southeast Asia cannot absorb the 5–10 day transit extensions now common on scheduled services. A single charter flight is often cheaper than a production shutdown.
Pharmaceuticals and life sciences. Temperature-sensitive cargo has been explicitly excluded from many scheduled embargoes (Lufthansa Group, for example, has restricted perishables, dry ice, and temperature-controlled shipments). Charter provides the controlled environment and direct routing these products require.
Humanitarian and government cargo. With regional infrastructure under strain, charter operators are also seeing increased requests for aid, relief, and diplomatic cargo movements into and around the wider region.
For shippers new to charter — or returning to it after a long absence — a few practical points are worth keeping in mind in the current environment:
Act early where you can. Aircraft availability is the scarcest resource right now. The carriers with fleets capable of serving affected lanes are heavily booked, and lead times that used to be 24–48 hours are often stretching to 72 hours or more for preferred aircraft types.
Be flexible on airport pairs. Dubai and Doha remain constrained. Muscat (MCT) has emerged as the primary workaround hub for UAE-origin freight, and Road Feeder Services through Saudi Arabia are being used to bypass cancelled flights. Jeddah (JED) and Riyadh (RUH) are also back in the rotation for many missions.
Understand the surcharge structure. Most charter quotes in the current market will include fuel and war risk components that can move between quote and execution. A transparent breakdown — what is fixed, what floats with fuel, what is tied to insurance — makes comparison between operators meaningful.
Use a platform, not a phone tree. The speed at which this market is moving rewards shippers and forwarders who can reach a wide network of operators through a single enquiry, rather than working the phones one carrier at a time. This is where CharterSync's operator network and digital workflow come into their own.
The situation remains highly fluid. The Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is due to expire on 26 April 2026, and the US naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in effect. The Strait of Hormuz has already opened and closed twice in 24 hours, with the most recent reversal reported this morning.
For air cargo specifically, our expectation is that:
If you have cargo that needs to move and scheduled options are no longer dependable, now is the time to have the charter conversation.
CharterSync gives freight forwarders fast access to a global network of cargo aircraft operators through a single platform. In fast-moving markets like the one we are in today, that means:
Whether you are moving a single pallet of aerospace AOG parts or a full 747F of consumer electronics, our platform is built to get aircraft moving when the scheduled network cannot.
Get in touch with the CharterSync team to discuss your requirements, or log in to the platform to request a quote.
CharterSync is the market-leading platform for air cargo charter, connecting freight forwarders with a global network of cargo aircraft operators.
